Doubts About Renewable Energy's Efficacy

In 2011, two senior engineers from Google revealed some disheartening insights regarding renewable energy during their work on the company's renewable energy initiatives. They concluded that:

"Relying solely on current renewable energy technologies to combat climate change is insufficient."

This revelation is particularly surprising given that renewable energy has become the most economical power source in two-thirds of the globe. Projections indicate that by 2050, solar and wind energy will account for half of the world's energy supply. Even in countries like China and India, which have been criticized for their slow progress at COP26, solar, wind, and hydropower are expected to contribute more than 60% to total energy generation.

So, why this bleak outlook?

The engineers noted that even with rapid advancements in renewable energy technologies deployed globally, atmospheric CO2 levels would remain above 350 ppm and continue to rise due to ongoing fossil fuel consumption. They stated:

“Our most optimistic projections for renewable energy would still lead to severe climate change, with consequences such as shifting climatic zones, freshwater scarcity, coastal erosion, and ocean acidification.”

This recognition—that even if we achieve the best-case scenario for renewables, it may not suffice—forces us to reconsider our approach.

The Complexity of Renewables

While the engineers advocated for the continued pursuit of renewable energy, they emphasized that additional measures are necessary to avert impending climate disasters.

What stands in the way of renewable energy's effectiveness?

The challenge lies primarily in energy density. Humanity has become deeply reliant on fossil fuels—akin to a child fixated on a candy bar. Oil, gas, and coal are incredibly energy-dense, the results of millions of years of solar energy compressed through geological processes into a highly combustible form.

In contrast, we are attempting to replace this concentrated energy with the solar energy received by the Earth in just one year, whether through wind, solar, or hydropower.

This transition is a formidable challenge.

Moreover, the collection of renewable energy is inconsistent. Even if solar panels were installed on every rooftop, energy production halts when the sun isn’t shining. Ironically, the United Kingdom, host of COP26, experienced soaring energy prices after a disappointing year for wind energy.

While wind power may be cheaper than coal, the inability to deliver wind energy when and where it’s needed means that fossil fuels will still be necessary. There are times when immediate power is essential.

Potential Solutions

However, there are viable alternatives: advanced nuclear energy, geothermal energy, and hydroelectric power are all capable of being quickly activated when other renewable sources fall short.

The Hidden Costs of Clean Energy

Clean energy technologies also have a concealed downside; they depend on a variety of critical minerals. This reliance raises concerns about potential supply bottlenecks.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, remarked:

"Current data reveals a growing mismatch between the world's heightened climate goals and the availability of essential minerals needed to achieve them."

The demand for these critical minerals in the energy sector could surge up to sixfold by 2040. Alarmingly, the quicker we shift toward renewables to lower emissions, the more pronounced these shortages may become.

As demand outpaces supply, prices will inevitably increase. Despite the previous trend of declining renewable costs, they could soon face inflationary pressures due to their own success. For instance, a significant shortfall in copper is projected by 2030—mines simply cannot be opened quickly enough.

Additionally, mining practices are not environmentally friendly. Lithium, crucial for battery technology, requires vast amounts of water, and the extraction processes can contaminate local ecosystems.