Chapter 1: The Art of Future Prediction

Predicting what lies ahead requires a blend of expertise and insight. In fact, much of scientific inquiry is built around this concept. Researchers dedicate their efforts to examining, recording, and hypothesizing about the behavior of various phenomena. Once they establish a working theory, they conduct experiments under controlled conditions to verify if the results are consistent.

For instance, early thinkers proposed that objects are invariably drawn toward the earth, a concept that eventually evolved into the understanding of gravity. Intellectuals began to study and document the behavior of objects influenced by gravitational forces.

However, if we can analyze and forecast events like this, what about our individual futures, or even the future of humanity at large? Is it feasible to make such predictions? If it is, how can we accomplish it? If not, what are the obstacles? This article aims to tackle these inquiries by first examining a brief history of humanity's attempts to foresee the future.

Section 1.1: Historical Predictions of the Future

Let’s begin with a look at a 1900 postcard from Germany that envisions life in the year 2000.

Flying Balloons and Blimps

This postcard illustrates aerial vehicles that were anticipated to be commonplace by the turn of the millennium. Fast forward to 2000, and while balloons and blimps were still present, humanity had achieved far greater technological feats, including fighter jets and spacecraft. It’s safe to conclude that this prediction missed the mark.

Another postcard from the same era depicts a whimsical idea:

Walking on Water

This image humorously illustrates individuals using balloons to stroll across water, with a horse pulling a cart across the surface. While amusing to us today, it likely sparked genuine wonder and excitement among people in 1900.

Let’s examine one more prediction from that time:

Underwater Ship-Train Hybrid

At first glance, this idea appears ludicrous. However, reflecting on it reveals that it may have been an attempt to address issues related to docking during low tides or shallow waters. Unfortunately, this vision did not materialize as predicted.

Chapter 2: Understanding Predictability in Nature

In nature, we can categorize phenomena into two types: reversible and irreversible processes. Reversible processes allow for scientific application and effective predictions. For example, Newton's third law states:

"Every action has an equal and opposite reaction."

This principle means that whether a ball strikes a bat or vice versa, the phenomenon behaves symmetrically and is generally independent of time. Much of physics operates within this realm of reversible processes.

Conversely, irreversible processes signify one-way events. Once they occur, they cannot be undone. These processes are often time-dependent. Consider an ice cube melting into a puddle. While you can describe the ice cube’s shape and apply complex equations to forecast the puddle's future state, the past remains elusive.

Predicting the Past to Predict the Future

Understanding the water puddle analogy highlights the challenge of forecasting. Without knowledge of the puddle's history, predicting its previous state becomes impossible. Similarly, past predictions have lacked foresight, which places them in the realm of irreversible processes, rendering future predictions uncertain.

To Predict the Future, Time Travel is Essential

For those familiar with thermodynamics or information theory, this concept aligns with entropy, which signifies randomness. Pure randomness is inherently unpredictable. The second law of thermodynamics states that the entropy of an irreversible process only increases over time, a principle that has remained unchallenged throughout history.

As we view the universe as a system of irreversible processes, we observe that entropy steadily rises. More information accumulates with each passing day, contributing to this increase in randomness.

In summary, if humans could somehow reduce or reverse entropy over time, we would gain the ability to predict the future of currently irreversible processes. This breakthrough would allow for time travel, altering the very essence of time. Until such advancements occur, our predictive capabilities may remain as flawed as they were in the past.

This TEDx talk by Jeremy Pesner delves into the complexities of future predictions, exploring the nuances of our ability to foresee what lies ahead.

This video poses the question, "Can we predict the future?" and examines the various dimensions of this intriguing topic.

Inspired by Neil deGrasse Tyson's presentation on space colonization at the 2018 World Government Summit, this article provides an engaging exploration of the intricacies of predicting the future.