The Podcasting Dilemma

Podcasting typically does not stir up much controversy. However, a recent article by Lucas Shaw in Bloomberg sparked considerable debate within the podcasting community.

According to Shaw's findings, none of the top ten podcasts in the U.S. from last year are recent arrivals. Research from Edison reveals that these shows have an average age of over seven years, with three of the top five—"The Joe Rogan Experience," "This American Life," and "Stuff You Should Know"—being over a decade old. Only a handful of podcasts in the top 50, such as "SmartLess," "The Michelle Obama Podcast," and "Frenemies," have been around for less than two years, and none have cracked the top 25.

Shaw points out that this trend is raising alarms among executives and producers in the podcasting sector, who fear they are squandering resources on new projects. Major players like Spotify, Amazon, SiriusXM, and iHeartMedia have invested billions into production companies, with Spotify leading the charge, having spent around $500 million on three studios. The question arises: where is all this investment going if new hits aren't materializing?

A likely explanation for this phenomenon, as noted by Bloomberg, is the sheer number of podcasts available today. Spotify now hosts over three million podcasts, a significant jump from just a few hundred thousand a few years back. While many of these new entries are short-lived or attract very small audiences, the overall landscape is far more crowded than ever.

The rapid increase in new podcasts has outpaced the growth of the listening audience, resulting in fewer listeners per show. The competition for attention has become more intense, akin to the overwhelming backlog of television shows vying for our time.

"Finding new shows has become increasingly difficult," Shaw notes, highlighting the reliance on recommendations, algorithms, and word-of-mouth. While curated year-end lists can enhance a show's visibility, podcast platforms need to improve their ability to guide listeners. The traditional reliance on Apple for promotion is now complicated by Apple's focus on shows within its subscription model.

Media fragmentation is a broader trend. Just as it was easier to attract a large audience on platforms like YouTube years ago, the same holds true for podcasts. As new platforms emerge, we may see shifts in where audiences gravitate.

Shaw emphasizes that podcasts launched a decade or even five years ago have a substantial advantage over newer shows. They have had the time to cultivate an audience, generate word-of-mouth buzz, and appear in search results. In contrast, newer shows face a smaller audience while established hits like Joe Rogan and "Call Her Daddy" continue to dominate.

Shaw's observation that there are too many podcasts vying for a limited pool of listeners rings true. Moreover, platforms like Spotify have been releasing a flood of new shows, many of which seem more derivative than innovative. This suggests that new podcasts must carve out unique niches or present fresh perspectives on familiar subjects to stand out.

Compared to TV shows and films, the barriers to launching a podcast are notably lower, making it easier for celebrities and social media influencers to create content for their followers. Consequently, the proliferation of podcasts shows no sign of slowing.

Is there a way forward? What are your thoughts on this issue?