The Future of Work: Will AGI Transform Our Jobs or Replace Them?
Written on
Chapter 1: Understanding AGI's Role in Employment
The concept of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is often depicted as a formidable force that may outperform humans in various economic tasks. According to Wikipedia, AGI is described as "an autonomous system that exceeds human abilities in most economically significant activities." This notion can be daunting; if AGI can outshine us in our work, could it leave us jobless, reliant on government support? I argue that this will not be the case. Let me share my perspective, stemming from personal experience.
As a high school math teacher, my daily routine involves guiding students through subjects like algebra, calculus, and statistics. While current AI technologies struggle with math, their capabilities are rapidly advancing. One day, they may solve mathematical problems more effectively than I can and provide explanations that facilitate student learning. When that day arrives, will I find myself unemployed?
Chapter 2: The Reality of Assessment in Education
Each year, in addition to my teaching responsibilities, I participate in grading statewide final exams. The curriculum board hires qualified educators for this task, relying on our expertise and judgment for nuanced evaluations. However, I often think that 90% of this grading could be accomplished by a computer equipped with handwriting recognition technology—doing it much faster than I ever could. Yet, year after year, I still have a job.
Chapter 3: Teaching vs. Grading - A Different Paradigm
I am confident that AI will eventually take over the bulk of exam grading, reducing a large team of assessors to a handful who handle only the most complex cases. However, I believe the same won't necessarily apply to teaching as a profession. Teaching is not just about completing tasks; it is an ongoing process with infinite learning potential for both students and educators. AGI could potentially enhance the productivity of teachers, allowing them to achieve even greater results with their students.
Chapter 4: The Labor Market and Human Value
The job market, like the economy, is governed by the principles of supply and demand. Even if AGI can perform a wide range of tasks, it cannot meet every human need and desire. As long as there are aspects of work that AGI cannot replicate, there will always be jobs available to us.
Interestingly, there are certain things that AI will never surpass human capabilities in, simply because it lacks the essence of being human. Take chess, for instance. While computers have outperformed the best human players for over two decades, millions still enjoy playing and watching chess. Hikaru Nakamura, for example, commands a massive following on platforms like YouTube and Twitch, despite the existence of superior machines. Why? Because he connects with people on a human level.
Chapter 5: The Essence of Human Connection
Similarly, AI can generate music comparable to Taylor Swift, yet fans choose to pay for live performances because they feel a profound emotional connection to her. This connection—people wanting to feel understood and part of something larger—is irreplaceable by AGI.
Having a job isn't merely about fulfilling basic needs. Most of us could live comfortably even with a reduced income. So why do we strive for more? We desire nicer homes, better cars, and to ensure our children don’t feel left out. This pursuit often extends beyond material wealth into the realms of acceptance, power, and fulfillment.
Chapter 6: Addressing Economic Inequality
However, we must acknowledge the valid concern that AGI could exacerbate economic disparities. The fear is that a small elite could control AGI, leaving the masses without opportunities, as discussed in the video "Capitalism Doesn’t Need Consumers Anymore." In this extreme scenario, the unemployed might find themselves marginalized, with no economic incentive for survival.
Despite these concerns, I remain optimistic that this dystopian future will not materialize. While the presenter of Economics Explained offers a different perspective, I believe the essence of human experience and connection will prevail.
Chapter 7: The Unbreakable Human Bond
In summary, as AI technology evolves, we will witness significant transformations in our workplaces. Nevertheless, the fundamental human connections we share will continue to drive us. As we navigate these changes, collaboration and mutual support will remain at the heart of what it means to be human.